No, the war on Iran is not about China. Europe should be much more worried.
The big talking point in the West these days to justify the illegal war of aggression against Iran is to say that it is, in fact, all about China - part of a strategy to encircle China energetically and deprive them of a geopolitical partner.
This narrative is getting pushed even to the point of absurdity, with former U.S. Ambassador to China Nicholas Burns literally mocking China for being what he calls “a feckless friend” in not helping Iran fight off the Americans. It speaks volumes on how sociopathic U.S. elites have become that a senior U.S. official would mock a nuclear-armed great power for not going to war with America. One would laugh if the topic weren’t so grave.
This narrative is not just coming from Washington but also from Europe, including from some very surprising (and disappointing) quarters. One example is that of France’s Jean-Luc Mélenchon, the leader of La France Insoumise, France's main left-wing opposition party, who is parroting Washington and saying that, indeed, the war on Iran is all about China because it “limits China's oil supply capabilities”. You wouldn’t expect Mélenchon to repeat almost word-for-word what Lindsey Graham or the Hudson institute (an American right-wing neoconservative think tank) are saying on Fox News but here you are…
In general, if a specific war narrative is being pushed by the Americans - all the more by American neocons - you’d be well-advised to take it with a massive pinch of salt: they’re not exactly renowned for letting the truth get in the way of a good narrative. They would of course say that their approach is all part of a grand masterplan to ultimately reshape the global order and bring their foremost adversary to heel: it’s exactly the type of feel-good narrative that plays well in Washington.
And maybe it is true, maybe it is really their plan - who knows? - but if that’s the case it’s utterly delusional and, in any case, as the saying goes, “no plan survives first contact with the enemy” (or, as Mike Tyson more colorfully put it: “everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth”). It was the U.S.’s plan to “democratize the Middle-East” with the war in Iraq and look how it turned out…
The truth is that, comparatively speaking, no matter how the war on Iran might turn out (it’s still very early days, and you already have reports indicating that the Pentagon is planning for the war to last until September), China is likely to be much less affected than others. And that’s particularly true of Europe.
