Arnaud Bertrand

Arnaud Bertrand

China's spy agency thinks the worst is over

Arnaud Bertrand's avatar
Arnaud Bertrand
May 21, 2026
∙ Paid

This is an extraordinary document which contains perhaps the most authoritative description of where China thinks its relationship with the U.S. stands, and where it’s headed.

The report was written by CICIR - the China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations (中国现代国际关系研究院) - which is the research institute of China’s powerful Ministry of State Security (MSS), basically the CIA and the FBI all wrapped in one.

Furthermore, it was published on chinadiplomacy.org.cn, which is jointly run by CIIS, the research institute of China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

In other words, you can hardly get closer to the horse's mouth - short of sitting in on a Politburo briefing.

The title of the report is “The Great Global Transformation and the Path to U.S.–China Coexistence” and a full translation is available at the bottom of this article, but in the meanwhile let me highlight what struck me most reading it.

User's avatar

Continue reading this post for free, courtesy of Arnaud Bertrand.

Or purchase a paid subscription.
© 2026 Arnaud Bertrand · Privacy ∙ Terms ∙ Collection notice
Start your SubstackGet the app
Substack is the home for great culture